Blinken lands in Ukraine for talks on Russian military buildup

Blinken said the implications of the mounting tensions were “bigger than Ukraine” as Russia, with its buildup of some 100,000 troops around Ukraine, challenged larger principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“If we allow those principles to be violated with impunity, then we will open a very large Pandora’s box,” Blinken said during remarks to personnel at the U.S. Embassy. “The entire world is watching what is happening here.”

The discussions in Kyiv, where Blinken met with President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of further talks in Berlin and Geneva, come amid what U.S. officials have described as a growing list of destabilizing actions, including what they say are potential Russian “false flag” operations in eastern Ukraine, live-fire exercises near Ukraine’s border with Russia and, this week, the movement of Russian troops into Ukraine’s pro-Moscow neighbor, Belarus.

The Kremlin has denied any plans to repeat its 2014 invasion of Ukraine, when Russian troops seized Crimea, and instead accused NATO of threatening Russian security in its expansion to the east.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that it was in fact the United States and its NATO allies that were raising tensions in the region.

“As for the tense situation in Ukraine, it is indeed very tense. We see weapons shipments there, we see various maneuvers, we see NATO and Western European countries flying over,” he said.

A senior State Department official, speaking to reporters ahead of Blinken’s departure, characterized the arrival of Russian troops and equipment in Belarus this week not as a routine drill but a further “show of strength” preceding a potential attack on Ukraine.

“Let’s be clear: This is extremely dangerous,” the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground rules established by the department, said. “We are now at a stage where Russia could, at any point, launch an attack on Ukraine.”

Blinken’s trip will culminate in Geneva on Friday when he meets his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an encounter which U.S. officials suggested might indicate an openness among Russian leaders to a peaceful resolution to the standoff.

While Moscow in recent weeks has put forward proposals to impose formal limits to NATO’s eastward enlargement and alliance activities in Eastern Europe, European and U.S. officials have dismissed that idea, saying NATO’s “open door” to potential members, including Ukraine, cannot be altered.

Washington instead has proposed measures on arms control and military exercises, which so far appear to have gained little traction on the Russian side.

Lavrov, speaking on Tuesday alongside visiting German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, said the United States must submit written responses to its proposals before discussions can advance. U.S. diplomats have not committed to taking that step.

It remains unclear whether Blinken can succeed in his face-to-face encounter with Lavrov in securing a peaceful resolution after earlier rounds of diplomacy, including a series of high-level U.S., Russian and European meetings last week, did not.

In a sign of the fast-moving pace of events, Blinken’s meeting with Lavrov was announced on Tuesday just hours before his departure from Washington, only after his travel to Ukraine and Germany was made public.

“It is still too early to tell if the Russian government is genuinely interested in diplomacy, if it is prepared to negotiate seriously in good faith,” the State Department official said ahead of Blinken’s departure. “If there is an opportunity to craft a diplomatic solution here, we certainly will put all of our energy into trying to realize that.”

Andrew Weiss, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that it was unlikely that Lavrov would be able to do more than relay information to Putin. Much more important, he said, would be a direct encounter between Putin and President Biden. The two men held an in-person meeting in July 2021 and then a virtual one in December.

“While talking to Putin about Ukraine is hardly an enviable or pleasant task, it’s unfortunate that there’s no one on the scene like Angela Merkel who can engage with him on behalf of the West,” Weiss said of the longtime German chancellor, who stepped down last year.

While the Biden administration and European partners have promised to apply severe economic pressure, including sanctions and potential steps to exclude Russia from the global financial system, former officials and experts doubt that will significantly influence Putin’s decisions.

U.S. officials say they also fear that Russia could increase its use of methods short of outright invasion to further destabilize Ukraine, including what they allege are disinformation and digital warfare activities. On Friday, a significant cyber attack disrupted Ukrainian government websites.

Russian-backed separatists have also been fighting Ukrainian forces in its eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

During his 24-hour stay in Kyiv, Blinken will also meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.