Despite differences, Biden administration stresses trans-Atlantic unity on Ukraine

“We cannot choose the path for Moscow, but we can make crystal clear the stark consequences of that choice,” Blinken told reporters after a hastily convened meeting of what is called the “trans-Atlantic Quad,” before making reference to NATO’s shared commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty. “That unity gives us strength, a strength, I might add, that Russia does not and cannot match.”

The Biden administration has accelerated its warnings that Russia, with some 100,000 troops positioned around Ukraine, may be preparing for an imminent invasion. Moscow has accused Ukraine of threatening its security by accumulating foreign weaponry and seeking to join the NATO alliance.

Most recently, Russia has moved forces into Belarus, Ukraine’s pro-Moscow neighbor to the north, in a development that Moscow has portrayed as a regular exercise but which Washington says could signal plans for an additional front against Ukraine.

Questions remained about how closely NATO nations are aligned on certain aspects of the Ukraine crisis, including how best to respond if Russia, which annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014, again resorts to force — questions that President Biden raised Wednesday in remarks about the situation.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, speaking alongside Blinken, said her country, like the United States, was committed to imposing “grave consequences” should Russia move forces into Ukraine.

“The coordination and consultation amongst us allies couldn‘t be more intensive than it is,” she said.

At the same time, while NATO members unanimously voiced backing this month for maintaining the alliance’s “open-door” policy that could permit Ukraine’s eventual membership, they have differing positions on Kyiv’s accession and how exactly to respond to a Russia assault.

Jim Townsend, who served as a senior Pentagon official for Europe, said a major point of divergence were potential sanctions related to the energy sector.

“That’s Europe’s Achilles heel, their dependency on Russia for oil and gas. So if sanctions imperil energy supplies, nations are less likely to sanction that sector,” he said. “With these fissures, strong U.S. and NATO leadership is vital; [NATO] Secretary General Stoltenberg and Tony Blinken will have to be at the top of their game to keep everyone together in the face of Russian pressure.”

On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said that European nations should engage with Russia independently, instead of relying on the United States to represent their interests to Russia.

“It is good that Europeans and the United States coordinate, but it is necessary that Europeans conduct their own dialogue,” Macron said, according to Reuters.

In addition, Germany’s new government has only haltingly signaled a willingness to pause the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will bring Russian gas to Western Europe, as a retaliatory move if Russia invades. Blinken meanwhile has suggested the project will be abandoned if war erupts, something the German government has not affirmed.

Not only does Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s fledgling coalition face internal divisions over Russia and the Nord Stream 2 project, Germany already has deep energy and trade relations to consider when it comes to dealing with Moscow, as the country is the largest importer of Russian natural gas. After China, Germany is Russia‘s largest trade partner.

Successive U.S. administrations have pressured Berlin to take a harder line on Russia. During the 2008 NATO Summit that yielded a tentative promise of membership for Ukraine, it was Germany and France that opposed Ukraine’s rapid admission into the alliance.

In another difference, Germany, unlike some other European nations, has declined to provide defensive weapons to Ukraine.

It’s not clear whether those differences could be affected by Biden’s suggestion, during a marathon news conference on Wednesday, that the severe economic and political retaliation Western nations have threatened would not occur if Russia took some kind of military action that fell short of a large-scale invasion.

“I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades, and it depends on what it does,” Biden said. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do, etcetera, but if they actually do what they are capable of doing with the force they’ve massed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia.”

The White House later clarified his remarks, saying any movement of Russian forces into Ukraine would be considered an invasion.

The Biden administration has said it would respond to renewed aggression by unleashing far more wide-reaching sanctions that those imposed following Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, potentially including sector-wide sanctions and steps to cut Russia off from the global financial system.

Blinken, who will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday, said that while the specific sanctions or retaliatory steps of NATO members might differ, the effect would still be powerful.

“We have different authorities in our different countries that we have to look at. There will no doubt be, if these sanctions prove necessary, a division of labor, but everything will be complementary, mutually reinforcing and closely coordinated,” he said.

He also said officials had been coordinating on potential steps should Russia increase its pressure on Ukraine short of invasion.

U.S. officials have accused Russia of conducting cyber and disinformation operations against Ukraine and positioning personnel in the country’s east who could conduct sabotage or “false flag” operations to provide a false rationale for military action.

In her remarks, Baerbock hinted at the tensions Germany faces over Nord Stream 2 but also appeared to reflect her government’s evolving position on the role of European energy supplies in the Ukraine showdown.

“This is about no less than...the preservation of Europe’s peaceful order. It is of existential importance for us. We have no choice but to consistently stand up for it,” she said. “This is expressly true in cases where this might have economic consequences for ourselves.”

Ukraine brushed off any questions over U.S. support and on Thursday Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reaffirmed that “Ukraine has the support of the U.S. in withstanding Russian aggression. Period.”

But he also warned against “repeating the mistakes of 2014” where the “West was confused, indecisive and slow, and this allowed Russia to commit many crimes and kill many Ukrainian citizens.”

Ahead of the Geneva meeting, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that warnings about a pending invasion were a camouflage for provocations against Russia. She also complained of recent British and American arms shipments to Ukraine.

“Ukraine views such assistance as carte blanche for an armed operation in Donbas,” Zakharova said, referring to the region where Russian-backed separatists are locked in a protracted conflict with Ukrainian forces.

Isabelle Khurshudyan in Moscow, Perry Stein in Brussels, David L. Stern in Kyiv and Rick Noack in Paris contributed to this report.