From snub to subs: Will new deal improve strained U.S.-Australia relations?

President Biden’s decision not to dial Prime Minister Scott Morrison until two days after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan stung in Australia.

But the surprise submarine deal between the two countries and Britain signals a strengthening of the already close U.S.-Australian military partnership, and may pave the way for a thawing of the so-far frosty relationship between the two leaders ahead of a meeting next week, experts said.

“I don’t think it’s too much to say it’s turning a page in the relationship,” said Eric Sayers, an ​​expert in Asia-Pacific security policy at the American Enterprise Institute. The Biden administration had “fumbled” communication with allies including Australia during the Afghanistan withdrawal, he said, but the message behind the new alliance was clear.

“It shows Washington and the Biden administration are really willing to power Australia’s defense capabilities in the most sensitive and high-technology way, and that is providing the keys to nuclear propulsion,” he said.

After years of promising to pivot to Asia, first under President Barack Obama and now Biden, the United States was finally making a sizable first step in that direction, said Ashley Townshend, a defense expert at the United States Studies Centre in Sydney.

“This is a tectonic development,” he said of the submarine deal. “It is exceedingly significant for Australian security.”

Both experts said the alliance, dubbed AUKUS, was clearly aimed at countering China’s growing military might in the region, though Biden, Morrison and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson were careful to avoid mentioning the country in their joint news conference.

Biden declined to answer questions about China after his remarks, and Morrison, speaking later in Canberra, shrugged off a question about an arms race with China.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has since slammed the deal as a threat to regional peace and provoking an arms race.

The effort comes amid rising tensions with China over a range of issues including military ambitions and human rights, and Biden has made it clear he views China as the country’s most significant global competitor. Australia has been locked in a trade war with China for more than a year.

Australia, which once walked a tightrope between China and the United States, was now taking the nuclear-powered plunge for two reasons, Morrison said. First, the United States had made a “one-off” offer of the technology that had not been on the table previously. The other was “game changing developments in the strategic circumstances of our region,” he added, in a veiled reference to China’s rise.

The three countries will work over the next 18 months to hash out the details of the deal including the type — either U.S. Virginia-class or British Astute-class — and price of the submarines, Morrison said.

The nuclear-powered subs will be faster, more capable, harder to detect and potentially much more lethal than the $66 billion of diesel-powered submarines Australia had planned to buy from France. They will carry conventional — not nuclear — weapons, the three leaders stressed.

Only six nations currently operate nuclear-powered submarines, and the United States had previously only shared the technology with Britain.

Morrison said it would be years before the first submarine hits the water, but the announcement nonetheless made immediate waves in Australia, which has no nuclear weapons or civilian nuclear power industry and has been a strong proponent of nuclear nonproliferation.

Australian Sen. Rex Patrick, a former submariner in the Australian navy and independent, called for an inquiry into the agreement, saying it raised questions around the country’s commitment to nuclear nonproliferation. Adam Bandt, leader of the Greens, called the submarines “floating Chernobyls.”

Perhaps the fiercest criticism came from Paul Keating, a former prime minister for the opposition Labor Party.

“This arrangement would witness a further dramatic loss of Australian sovereignty,” he wrote, “at a time when United States reliability and resolution around its strategic commitments and military engagements are under question.”

Current Labor leader Anthony Albanese, who was briefed before the announcement, expressed support for AUKUS but criticized the prime minister for the “failure” of the French submarine deal, which already cost a few billion dollars and whose demise has angered France.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has called it a “brutal, unilateral and unpredictable” decision reminiscent of something former president Donald Trump would do.

Morrison does not enjoy the same chummy relationship with Biden that he had with Trump, however, and at Wednesday’s news conference, the American president appeared to initially forget his counterpart’s name. In contrast, Morrison repeatedly referred to Biden as “Joe.”

The pair are set to have an in-person meeting at a Quad summit next week that will also be attended by the leaders of India and Japan. Australian media have reported the two will also meet one-on-one.

The Biden administration has signaled it would like Australia to commit to more ambitious climate change targets. With the submarine deal delivering on an Australian long-term objective, Morrison will be feeling increasing personal pressure to move on climate change ahead of next month’s climate conference in Glasgow, Townshend said, though he stressed the two issues are not linked.