In a bad sign for Boris Johnson, Britain’s Conservatives lose Parliament seat they held for nearly 200 years

The loss is certain to boost Johnson’s critics in the Conservative Party, which in particular is known for deposing leaders it sees as not winning elections.

“The people of North Shropshire have spoken on behalf of the British people. They have said loudly and clearly: ‘Boris Johnson, the party is over,’” Helen Morgan, the newly elected member of Parliament, said in her victory speech.

The shocking result — the centrist Liberal Democrats not only overturned a Conservative majority of 23,000 but won by nearly 6,000 votes — follows a massive rebellion by Johnson’s party this week over his introduction of coronavirus measures to head off a rise in infections.

It’s just one seat of 650 in a Parliament that the Conservatives handily dominate, but it has received national attention as a test for the embattled prime minister, who has endured weeks of bad headlines.

The seat became vacant only after Conservative lawmaker Owen Paterson, an ally of Johnson’s, stepped down for breaking lobbying rules. Johnson conceded that he “crashed the car” in his handling of the case.

Voters were “fed up,” Oliver Dowden, the Conservative Party chairman, told Sky News. “They gave us a kicking.”

Analysts said the North Shropshire vote concentrated minds on Johnson’s ability — or not — to win elections. “His whole premiership is based on, ‘he’s good at winning elections,’” said Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester. “If it becomes a settled view that, far from being an electoral Gandalf, he is an electoral Voldemort, he’s not long for Number 10,” he added, referring to the prime minister’s address at 10 Downing St. in London.

Paula Surridge, a senior lecturer at the University of Bristol, said some members of the Conservative Party were “never fans” of Johnson’s but were willing to “put up with him” because he was an electoral asset, not a liability. He was Mr. Landslide, with cross-party appeal. In December 2019, Johnson led the Conservatives to a whopping 80-seat majority, winning seats in traditional Labour Party heartlands in the north of England. Johnson also served two terms as mayor of London, a Labour-leaning city.

But the latest election shows the “the shine was coming off with voters” and “doubts were creeping in with the Conservative Party,” Surridge said.

The latter may be the most worrisome for Johnson.

Unlike the Labour Party, the main opposition party that will let unpopular leaders limp on, the Conservative Party is known to be quicker than most at toppling leaders perceived as unable to bring in the voters. Most famously, in 1990 Margaret Thatcher was booted out by her own party with a sudden ruthlessness that surprised Britons.

Johnson could face a leadership challenge if 54 lawmakers from his own party submit letters of no confidence, triggering an internal party vote on his removal.

But Johnson is no stranger to controversy and has bounced back, repeatedly, from scandals and setbacks. And while talk of regicide is easy, there are no reports of a deluge of letters flooding in.

Daniel Wincott, a politics expert at Cardiff University, said that Johnson has long had a reputation as a “Teflon politician on whom things seem to slide.” But lately, less has been sliding.

Johnson is battling fires on many fronts: a surging omicron variant, rebellious lawmakers, tanking approval ratings.

Arguably most damning, said Wincott, is the drip, drip, drip of allegations about government staff flouting rules and attending Christmas parties last year at a time when such gatherings were banned. The “sense of hypocrisy does start to stick,” Wincott said.

Johnson denied that any rules were broken and ordered an internal inquiry by the cabinet secretary, Simon Case.

Earlier this week, Johnson’s premiership was rocked when nearly 100 of his own Conservative lawmakers rebelled to vote against new coronavirus proposals. While the measures ultimately passed, with the help of opposition politicians, it was a blow to Johnson’s authority. Shortly after the vote, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, treasurer of the influential 1922 committee of backbench Conservative lawmakers, warned on television that a leadership challenge “has got to be on the cards.”

“He’s in trouble,” said Ben Page, global head of Ipsos MORI, a pollster. “He’s made a series of self-inflicted wounds, and if he continues on the same track then all bets are off.”

But he added that things were “not yet terminal” and that “assuming he can get his act together, he can recover.” The next general election is due in 2024, and the Liberal Democrats have a history of doing well in special elections but not nationwide ones.

While the Labour Party is currently polling slightly ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in years, it would still lose if an election were held today because of boundary changes and demographics.

Surridge, the lecturer, said she did not think Johnson was in “immediate trouble” but allowed that the tide has turned against him. “The stuff from the Number 10 parties and Christmas quizzes stick in the public mind, and his personal ratings I don’t think will recover. The things coming out are molding together in people’s minds with anger and unresolved grief and upset” from the coronavirus pandemic last year when people were unable to have parties or see their own families.

The “events of the last few weeks have damaged him enough that it’s sort of the beginning of the end,” she said. “I don’t think the end will be soon, but I think it will be difficult to recover from completely.”

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