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The stakes are especially high for Russia, effectively the leader of the bloc, as its presence risks alienating a Kazakhstani public that is demanding a change in regime but has yet to show any anti-Russian sentiment.
The unrest also comes at a fraught time for the Kremlin, amid a troop buildup near the Ukraine border and ahead of negotiations with the United States about guarantees Russia has demanded from NATO that it not expand or cooperate with ex-Soviet countries.
The tensions, now both at Russia’s southwestern border and its southeastern one, underscore the challenges for Moscow in maintaining what it considers its sphere of influence: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Central Asia, and the Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia — all former members of the Soviet Union.
“If you have great power ambitions, please show what you can do on several fronts. Many others failed to that," Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Moscow Center said on Twitter.
“Kazakhstan will test Russia’s actual capabilities. It will be both distracting and sobering," he added.
The demonstrations began over the weekend in Kazakhstan’s oil-rich western region over high energy prices and then spread elsewhere, including Almaty, the country’s largest city. Protesters on Wednesday set city halls across the country ablaze and briefly took over the Almaty airport. Part of their anger appeared to be aimed at Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s authoritarian former president, who continues to exert significant power behind the scenes under the official title of “father of the nation.”
An Almaty Police Department spokesperson told local media Thursday that “extremist forces” attempted to storm several government buildings, including the police department. Video from Russia’s Tass state news agency showed armed security forces engaged in a shootout near the main square of Almaty.
“Dozens of attackers have been eliminated, their identities are being established,” said spokeswoman Saltanat Azirbek, according to Russian news agency Interfax.
At least eight law enforcement officers have been killed, according to the Interior Ministry. More than 1,000 people have been injured in the protests, the Health Ministry said Thursday, including 400 of whom that have been hospitalized with 62 in intensive care.
Kazakhstan’s Internet was blacked out Thursday, with national banking services reportedly suspended.
Hours after Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev appealed for support, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who chairs a council within the CSTO, announced on Facebook that an unspecified number of troops would be sent to the Central Asian nation “for a limited time period” to “stabilize and resolve the situation.”
The alliance said forces from Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would be deployed to Kazakhstan, with the primary goal of protecting state and military facilities. Moscow also sent paratroopers, the organization said.
Tokayev’s government quickly restored price caps on liquefied petroleum gas like propane, which powers most vehicles in the country’s west. He also removed Nazarbayev as head of the powerful National Security Council and declared a two-week state of emergency for the entire country. In a televised speech Wednesday, Tokayev accused foreign-funded “terrorist bands” of stoking unrest but did not offer evidence or specify which countries were behind the purported plot.
Nazarbayev, who ruled for nearly three decades before stepping down in 2019, has not been seen or heard from this week. On Wednesday, a statue of Nazarbayev in Taldykorgan, near Almaty, was pulled down and demolished by protesters. At rallies across the nation, people chanted: “Old man, go away!”
“Grievances have been accumulating over years, and with Nazarbayev’s resignation in 2019, people felt the promise of change and started pushing for change in various ways,” said Nargis Kassenova, a Central Asia expert at Harvard University, adding that there were references to a “Kazakh Spring.”
How the demonstrations “are and will be perceived by the political elites … will define the trajectory” for Nazarbayev, said Kassenova, adding that he remains “central for the system.”
Kazakhstan is Central Asia’s wealthiest and, with 19 million people, its second-most-populous country, and the widespread unrest — along with the entrance of Russia-linked forces — stirred concerns in regional capitals and Washington.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price called on all parties to resolve the situation peacefully.
“We condemn the acts of violence and destruction of property and call for restraint by both the authorities and protesters,” he said in a statement. “We ask for all Kazakhstanis to respect and defend constitutional institutions, human rights, and media freedom, including through the restoration of internet service.”
Kazakhstan hosts the Baikonur Cosmodrome, a rocket launch complex leased to Russia. About a fifth of Kazakhstan’s population are ethnic Russians, and Moscow has in the past deployed “peacekeepers” to countries that President Vladimir Putin fears are slipping out of his political orbit. Leaders in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine have previously complained that such troops prop up pro-Russian separatist forces.
Deploying forces, even a relatively small contingent, to Kazakhstan now is particularly tricky for Moscow. Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukraine border, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, in what American intelligence has found could be plans for a multi-pronged, fresh invasion into Ukraine as soon as this month.
Russian military units that had been deployed in Siberia and the Ural Mountains, near Kazakhstan, were “almost completely” moved to positions near Ukraine and Belarus, according to Rob Lee, a Russian military expert and fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
“Russia still has plenty of units that it can deploy if necessary, but you wouldn’t want to start a conflict with Ukraine right now while the situation in Kazakhstan is so uncertain,” Lee said on Twitter. “Wars are inherently unpredictable, and Russia’s situation just became more complex.”
The public anger against Kazakhstan’s leaders is also likely to be a headache for China, which shares a land border with the country. Beijing has ramped up investment in the Kazakh energy sector as part of its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. The American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank, estimates that Chinese investment and construction projects in Kazakhstan between 2005 and 2021 totaled more than $34 billion.
China and Kazakhstan celebrated 30 years of diplomatic ties Monday, with Chinese President Xi Jinping sending a congratulatory message to Nazarbayev and Tokayev. Xi called the former an “old friend,” according to Chinese state documents, and said he wanted to collaborate with the two leaders to expand strategic ties between their countries.
Hu Xijin, an influential Chinese nationalist commentator, said the unrest in Kazakhstan resembles a “color revolution,” referencing the massive protests in Ukraine and Georgia in the early 2000s that toppled pro-Russian leaders.
While seen in the West as fueled by a popular desire for better political and economic conditions, Russian commentators have described the demonstrations as instigated by Western agents.
“The trigger [for the protests] is worsening economic and living conditions. This is where the West wants to strike to destabilize Russia and China,” Hu wrote on social media, without offering evidence. “Russia and China will not allow America and the West to push Kazakhstan to the abyss of prolonged turmoil.”
Cheng reported from Seoul. Mary Ilyushina in Moscow contributed to this report.
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