Stocks are flat to start week as investors assess recession odds, higher oil prices

U.S. stocks were mostly flat Monday as traders monitor the bond market's warning signals about the economy and higher oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 140 points lower. The S&P 500 was flat and Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.4%.

Twitter gave the Nasdaq a lift after shares surged more than 25% following news that Elon Musk purchased a more than 9% passive stake in the social media company. Based on Twitter's Friday closing price, the stake is worth $2.89 billion.

Tesla shares ticked 1% higher after the company reported on Saturday its latest quarterly electric vehicle delivery figures. The company delivered more than 310,000 EVs in the first quarter, up from 184,800 in the year-earlier period. Starbucks shares also dipped about 1% after the coffee chain suspended its share repurchase program.

A key section of the yield curve remained inverted after the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 Thursday evening. The 5-year note yield is also trading above its 30-year counterpart.

"We think the current flattening is due to the concern that the Fed is behind the curve on hikes and will tighten policy beyond neutral, which will hurt growth," TD Securities said in a note to clients.

Banks declined as a narrowing yield curve could mean lower profits for the group ahead. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley dropped 1% apiece as Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo trimmed his price targets on the pair.

Meanwhile, oil moved higher with WTI crude jumping 3% and back above $100 a barrel and Brent crude rose about 2.6%.

Investors continue to watch the latest developments in Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Sunday that Western nations will impose additional sanctions on Russia in the coming days.

"Equity and bond markets continued to send conflicting signals about the economic outlook," UBS said in a recent note to clients. "We caution against over-interpreting either signal. Yield curve inversions have historically predicted recessions with a long and uncertain lag, while hopes over cease-fire talks have ebbed and flowed," the firm added.

Wall Street is coming off a winning session, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all posting gains Friday. The S&P 500 also posted its third straight week of gains.

Seasonally, April is generally one of the best months for stocks, edging higher in the last 20 years by 2.41% on average, MKM Partners' JC O'Hara wrote in a note. Within 16 of the last 17 Aprils, the S&P has also inched higher.

Friday's positive session came despite March's employment report, which fell short of economists' estimates. The U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs during the month, while estimates from Dow Jones called for 490,000.

"Strong gains on the employment front continue to signal a green light for investors despite multi-decade highs in inflation and concerns over higher rates and Fed tightening," noted Peter Essele, head of portfolio management for Commonwealth Financial Network. "The economy appears to be in exit velocity mode, with the only concern being the amount of labor supply available to fuel the robust recovery," he added.

On Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee will publish the minutes from the central bank's March meeting, giving investors a deeper understanding into how the Fed views market conditions.